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Showcase: 14-day mortality risk prediction in nursing home residents with dementia and pneumonia treated with antibiotics

2019-02-06

A new prediction model has been made available for public use on the Evidencio platform. The model predicts the mortality in nursing home residents with dementia and pneumonia treated with antibiotics. The paper was published in the Jounrals of Gerontology: Series A by Rauh et al. The model can be used to guide clinical decision making regarding treatment options for the nursing home residents. For instance, whether to prepare for the dying process and focus on comfort, or try to cure the pneumonia with antibiotic treatment. To predict the 14-day mortality, Rauh et al. have updated an earlier developed prediction model after validating the original prediction model. Patient data used to perform the analysis in the study were collected in the PneuMonitor study and consisted of 380 episodes in 341 nursing home residents who received antibiotic treatment for pneumonia. A total of 55 residents died within 14 days. Updating the prognostic model improved the discrimination of the model, assessed using the area under the curve from 0.76 (0.76 - 0.77) to 0.80 (0.80 - 0.81) The model can be accessed publicly on Evidencio by clicking this link: https://www.evidencio.com/models/show/1640 The original paper can be found by clicking this link: https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/gly260

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